江西食物生产波动特征与效率研究

食物波动与效率是食物安全的重要研究内容。1993~2003年江西省平均食物生产全要素相对生产率为0.974,其规模效益基本上呈现常数规模效益与规模效益递增交替波动现象。灰色关联分析表明,粮食产量、油料产量、肉类产量、糖料产量等与食物总量具有显著关联性,其灰色关联序为：粮食产量＞油料产量＞肉类产量＞糖料产量＞禽蛋产量＞水果产量＞牛奶产量,所以要保证食物总量安全,必须首先保障粮食、油料、肉类等的生产。     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动轨迹及落点分析

传统的角度偏差经验值方法导致落物风险评价过程中的落点和危险区预测存在较大误差，科学化、立体化、完整化、多因素概化的落物轨迹和落点分析方法及工具缺位。为此，以海洋平台圆柱体落物为研究对象开展先导研究，在2D运动理论模型基础上，考虑3维、6度受力与运动参数，引入粘性拖曳力系数经验公式、海流运动、旋转升力和力矩项，建立了具有普适性的落物水下3D运动轨迹预测模型，并以现场实验数据校验表明模型方法可行、结果更可信；据此以Matlab 2016为程序设计平台编制了海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动预测分析工具（MREDP），分析了坠落运动落点分布规律。研究结果表明:随着初始倾斜角度的增大，落点偏移距离呈现先增后降的趋势，于62°时达到最大值，运动轨迹整体呈现螺线曲率减小、向轨迹曲线外开口侧偏移趋势；落点分布变化可分为Y轴偏移稳定主导阶段、X轴偏移实力型快速主导阶段和X轴偏移机会型主导阶段3个阶段；相对MREDP预测结果，DNVGL-RP-F107经验性角度偏差推荐结果较为保守，MREDP可为DNVGL-RP-F107提供更加准确、可信的轨迹曲线和落点取值。基于分析结果，提出了采用Monte Carlo方法表征实际工程中起始运动参数随机性和入水撞击产生的不确定性等建议。     

系统聚类分析在农户生态系统类型划分中的应用

应用主成分分析法和系统聚类分析法，对湖北省京山县刘家岭村５０个农户进行了生态系统类型数值分类分析，结果表明，该村农户生态系统可分为农－牧业型、果－农－牧业型和渔－农－牧业型三类，与全村３３８个农户情况相符。     

耕地土壤中交换态钙镁铁锰铜锌相关关系研究

应用主成份分析、聚类分析和相关性分析对沈阳市郊区1994个耕地土壤样本(0-20cm)的交换态钙、镁、铁、锰、铜、锌含量进行研究，结果表明，影响钙与镁、铁与锰、铜与锌分布的主因子分别在相同的主成份组中，钙与镁、铁与锰、铜与锌之间的相关系数较大，铁、锰、铜、锌之间均为极显著正相关关系，钙与铁、锰、铜、锌均为负相关关系，说明元素的生物地球化学属性对其地理分布有较大的影响。     

Application of adaptive cluster sampling to low-density populations of freshwater mussels

Freshwater mussels appear to be promising candidates for adaptive cluster sampling because they are benthic macroinvertebrates that cluster spatially and are frequently found at low densities. We applied adaptive cluster sampling to estimate density of freshwater mussels at 24 sites along the Cacapon River, WV, where a preliminary timed search indicated that mussels were present at low density. Adaptive cluster sampling increased yield of individual mussels and detection of uncommon species; however, it did not improve precision of density estimates. Because finding uncommon species, collecting individuals of those species, and estimating their densities are important conservation activities, additional research is warranted on application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussels. However, at this time we do not recommend routine application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussel populations. The ultimate, and currently unanswered, question is how to tell when adaptive cluster sampling should be used, i.e., when is a population sufficiently rare and clustered for adaptive cluster sampling to be efficient and practical? A cost-effective procedure needs to be developed to identify biological populations for which adaptive cluster sampling is appropriate.     

计算机辅助确定外因火灾位置方法

系统介绍用计算机辅助确定矿井外因火灾位置方法的原理,给出该方法的具体步骤,剖析其定性分析、定量分析和定量分析结果评价三大步骤中的各技术关键,并借助一个实例验证了该方法实用的可行性     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.     

Seasonal Fluctuation in Heavy Metal Pollution in Iran´s Siahroud River - A Preliminary Study (7 pp)

Background The management of its available water resources has become a key issue for Iran. During the last few decades, the water quality of Siahroud River in the coastal plain of the Caspian Sea in Gilan Province in Northern Iran has significantly degraded. The scarcity of water has been compounded by rapid population growth and increasing pollution from fertilizers, pesticides, and municipal and industrial wastes. One of the sources of this degradation is the movement of heavy metals from the river's watershed into the various water systems supported by the river, including the water system for Rasht City. Methods To study the magnitude of heavy metal pollution in the Siahroud River, seven heavy metals including Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd, Mn, Fe, and Ni were measured in duplicate from replicated water samples collected over five consecutive seasons and analyzed by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. In situ measurements of pH were taken with the samples and total organic carbon (TOC) was analyzed by IR gas measurement. Results The results demonstrated that four of the seven heavy metals including Pb, Fe, Cd, and Mn exceeded permissible safe levels as established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Multivariate factor analysis suggested that industrial land-use was the main contributing factor for the high levels of Fe and Mn in the Siahroud River, whereas, Cd was principly from agricultural activities in the watershed. The data also suggested that pH and TOC had an important role in the behaviour of Pb and Mn, and that the elevated levels of these two heavy metals in Siahroud River was the consequence of other anthropogenic sources. Only negligible levels of Zn, Cu and Ni were detected. Finally, all the sampling stations were subjected to cluster analysis. The results indicated that three different zones could be distinguished according to the levels of pollution. In addition, it was shown that the urban areas did not have a significant impact on the heavy metal pollution in the river. This observation stems from the fact that the data from the sampling stations before and after Rasht City were not significantly different. Recommendation . Preventive measures need to be undertaken in the land-use systems and watersheds of the Siahroud River to reduce the pollution levels of Pb, Cd, Mn and Fe.     

基于专利的区域环境技术创新水平空间分异研究

以环境技术专利表征创新水平,采用绝对指标与相对指标、专利结构布局系数(或特化系数)与技术创新主体结构布局系数,衡量中国各省市环境技术创新水平的空间分异,探讨其不平衡性的原因.研究结果表明,绝对指标评价的环境技术创新水平,呈现"东高西低"的格局;相对指标表征的环境技术创新水平,大部分省市的评价结果基本上在0.1～0.5、0.59～1.04之间,空间分异不明显.东部地区省市发明专利、企业专利特化系数高,如天津、香港、北京、上海的发明专利特化系数均在1.3以上,香港和上海的企业专利特化系数大于2.但是发明专利、公司企业专利--2项最具价值的专利技术创新水平均较高的省市不多,我国环境技术创新水平整体水平不高.